Are the New York Islanders actually good, and should it change the long-term vision?

The projected best-case scenario for the New York Islanders heading into this year was a 96-point season that landed them in the playoffs on the backs of Mathew Barzal, Ilya Sorokin, and Matthew Schaefer.

That scenario just didn’t seem like the likely outcome for a team that kicked off a retool under new general manager Mathieu Darche a few months earlier.

But after wins over the Tampa Bay Lightning, Colorado Avalanche, Vegas Golden Knights and Anaheim Ducks in the last couple of weeks, the Islanders are on that path. With 41 points in 33 games, the Islanders sit second in the Eastern Conference behind the Hurricanes.

Any time a team surprises with a strong start, the real question is whether there is enough substance behind it — and when that team comes into the season with a long-term vision like the Islanders did, whether their play is enough to change the game plan.

So are the Islanders actually good, and should that change the team’s plans this season? Let’s dive in.

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The Islanders can’t stack up wins against some of the league’s strongest contenders and division leaders without some real strengths.

The first is how this team has evolved offensively. In seasons past, the Islanders were a low-event, dump-and-chase team. That grinding style worked in tandem with a stingy defense and reliable goaltending to win tight, low-scoring games. But this year’s group has embraced a more up-tempo game.

The Islanders rarely dump the puck in this year, compared to last season. Instead, this group is scoring in two key ways: quickly off face-offs and in transition. A possession-heavy style that relies on controlled entries and chances off the rush has been a real game-changer on Long Island. According to Sportlogiq data, the Islanders are up to seventh in the league in possession entries (26th last year), and have jumped up to third in rush goals (15th last year).

Mathew Barzal leads the charge as one of the best at generating scoring chances off the rush. Last year, All Three Zones’ tracking credited him with 21.3 controlled entries per 60 at five-on-five, which was in line with Leon Draisaitl, Jack Eichel, Connor McDavid and Jack Hughes; that transition game is once again fueling his game this year.

There is always room for nitpicks within Barzal’s game, because his year-to-year consistency doesn’t always match his ceiling based on raw talent alone. And the critique this year is that he isn’t shooting the puck enough, even compared to his pace in a condensed season last year.

But Barzal’s ability to control the pace of play with his elite puck-moving ability has still been a standout, and has helped him drive play with a 55 percent expected goals rate and a 19-11 scoring edge at five-on-five in his minutes.

With Barzal back at center, the Islanders have a stronger one-two punch in the top six between him and Horvat. It spreads out two of the best puck-moving forwards, which has helped boost that rush-based attack.

Before leaving Thursday’s game with injury, Horvat has been one of the best drivers of the Islanders’ offense. His five-on-five scoring rate is the highest of his career at 2.18 points per 60, thanks to an uptick in goal-scoring. While his shot volume and quality are up, the real difference is that he is converting on 18 percent of his shots. What goes up generally comes back down, and a regression could eventually shrink the gap between the team’s expected (2.75 xG per 60) and actual scoring pace (3.09 goals per 60) with him on the ice.

But there is more oomph behind his success than just an uptick in goal scoring. Horvat is passing the puck more, with 10.2 primary shot assists per 60 (compared to 6.38 last year), which is helping Emil Heineman generate more scoring chances. And Horvat, like the rest of the Islanders, has benefited from Schaefer’s excellence — his scoring rate has spiked in their shared minutes, with the Islanders outscoring opponents 12-6 in that time.

The 18-year-old phenom is already living up to the hype. He injected pace and confidence to the blue line on Day 1 and is only improving on the fly.

Schaefer is a true needle-mover already with his play in all three zones. He brings a much-needed puck-moving presence from the back end. Few Islanders defensemen could be counted on to lead the breakout and skate the puck out of danger last year. Schaefer’s carry-outs per 60 are among the best in the league.

And now, his all-around game is translating into matchup minutes. It didn’t take long for the Islanders to start leaning heavily on the rookie, with him hitting the 26-minute mark in just his second game. After he got acclimated to the speed and skill of this level, the coaches increased his workload in terms of the quality of competition. It took him a few games to adjust to a tougher role, but he seems to be up to speed now — over the last 12 games, he has a 53 percent xG rate and is helping the Islanders outscore opponents 9-5.

Two other key elements have helped the Islanders over this last stretch: the power play and elite goaltending.

Special teams have been a real weakness on Long Island in recent seasons. The Islanders’ power play started the season slowly, then went seven straight games (and 37 minutes) without a goal though most of November. The team ended that drought late last month and has generated more quality looks since, with eight goals over the past nine games in 47 minutes of opportunity.

The penalty kill, on the other hand, still needs more work — but Ilya Sorokin has been the difference.

Sometimes as teams transition to a more fast-paced, rush-oriented game, it can come at the expense of their team defense. That’s been the case for the Islanders so far this year.

It’s less a shot-volume problem and more a quality issue. The chances that get through tend to be from the most dangerous areas of the ice: the slot and the net-front area right in front of the blue paint. That has added up to a rate of 2.92 xG against per 60 at five-on-five, which is the sixth-worst in the league.

Sorokin has just been outstanding behind a challenging workload, and that’s masked a lot of the team’s lapses.

Just take the Islanders’ 2-1 win against the Lightning.

Tampa Bay had its chances, with 41 unblocked shots totaling 3.23 expected goals at five-on-five. Sorokin was just a brick wall against those scoring chances and stole the win with 2.23 goals saved above expected.

Against the Avalanche two nights later, Sorokin had more goal support — but his saves against a hefty workload of 46 unblocked shots worth 3.95 xG gave the team a chance.

After a shakier start to the season, Sorokin is now up to 17 quality starts in 22 appearances this season. With 27 goals saved above expected, he ranks second to only Logan Thompson.

So between elite goaltending, a stronger puck-moving presence, two true top-six centers, a franchise cornerstone on defense and some more help from the supporting cast, the Islanders have clearly exceeded expectations and climbed up the standings.

How much, if at all, should that change the game plan?

This last stretch could sway management to buy in on this team. The Islanders are 6-0-1 in December, despite playing short-handed (without some combination of Horvat, Jonathan Drouin, Kyle Palmieri, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Alexander Romanov across these games) against a really challenging row of opponents. Pair that with a thriving core and a wide-open Eastern Conference, and the Islanders have given themselves a real shot of disrupting the projected playoff picture.

The Islanders are technically on pace for 102 points. The Model™, which factors in a team’s roster strength (from this year and previous seasons) and the schedule ahead, projects a more modest 93-point projection, which would slide the Islanders into a wild-card seed.

The reality is, though, that this team has disrupted the playoff picture in seasons past with little to show for it. And there are some real on-ice holes to navigate, like the penalty kill and team defense at even strength. So management may prefer to take a more proactive approach in the short term to load this team up for a window of contention in the near future. And that doesn’t necessarily mean pulling themselves out of playoff positioning, either — Darche has already said he does not intend to tear the Islanders down and fully rebuild.

So maybe the Islanders don’t just trade pending free agents to contenders for future assets, and instead look for hockey deals that can improve this team now and in the future. The Capitals, who are the current model for retooling on the fly, showed what that can look like, with the Rasmus Sandin trade serving as a perfect example. It’s all about taking a measured approach.

Sometimes, it only takes one or two really creative deadlines to move the needle enough in a retool. Last year, the Islanders got that started with the Brock Nelson trade that brought back Cal Ritchie. This year, it could mean players like Pageau and Casey Cizikas on the trade block when the deadline rolls around, regardless of the Islanders’ standing position, with the demand (and high price) for centers in mind. And as this team has shown through a number of injuries, moving out a couple of NHL regulars doesn’t have to derail this team — it can just give a glimpse into the next wave of Islanders hockey.

It’s a new era on Long Island under Darche. After years of finishing in the dreaded middle, the outlook is a lot more exciting — and it’s reflecting earlier than expected on the ice. The Islanders have earned their way in the playoff picture, but that shouldn’t stop management from finding long-term ways to extend that success.

Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.