Global coal demand in 2024 is estimated to have reached 8 805 Mt, an increase of 1.5% on the previous year. Growth was concentrated in Asia, while advanced economies continued their structural decline in consumption. Power sector coal use remained the dominant driver, supported by seasonal factors and hydropower variability, while non-power coal demand held broadly stable. China and India accounted for 71% of global consumption, reinforcing the eastward shift in demand.

For 2025, global coal demand is projected to reach 8 845 Mt, setting a new record. The increase of around 40 Mt compared with 2024 is very similar to the forecast we made last year. While there were some unusual regional trends, they had the effect of cancelling each other out. The United States posted the largest absolute gain of about 37 Mt, supported by policy measures and higher gas prices. In the European Union (EU) the decline in coal demand slowed, mostly due to wind droughts in the first half of the year. And although India has been the engine of growth in recent years, in 2025 its coal demand has been falling.

Meanwhile, China’s coal consumption held steady at 4 953 Mt, with flexible coal-fired power supporting renewables and coal demand increasing for chemical production, offsetting declines in cement and other industries. ASEAN countries’ demand continues to expand on the back of new power capacity and metals processing activity. Overall, the picture is a complex interplay between expansion in emerging markets and the phase-out challenges in mature systems.

In the period to 2030, global coal demand is forecast to continue its plateau, albeit falling slightly by the end of the decade. In our forecast, global coal demand in 2030 is expected to the level seen in the years prior to 2023. China’s share remains dominant, although its coal demand flattens as renewables expand and coal’s role in the power sector shifts towards flexibility. India emerges as the main source of incremental demand, adding 225 Mt from 2025 to 2030, while ASEAN countries contribute 127 Mt, driven by Indonesia and Viet Nam. In contrast, the European Union and the United States register further declines of 153 Mt and 106 Mt, respectively, as phase-out policies and fuel switching accelerate. In the rest of the world coal demand declines by 179 Mt, reflecting mixed trends across Africa, South Asia (excluding India) and other emerging markets.

Across all regions, coal’s operational role is evolving. In Asia coal remains critical for electricity security and industrial processes, but its share in power generation declines steadily as renewables scale up. Advanced economies continue to phase out coal in power generation, reinforcing the structural eastward shift in global demand. By 2030, coal demand is expected to stabilise within a narrow band, with non-power uses, particularly chemicals, providing resilience even as steel and cement consumption weaken.

Our forecast of coal demand for power generation is made at individual country level, taking into account electricity demand, renewable energy policies and development, and expectations of future fuel prices and generation capacities (see Electricity report for more detail). Global electricity generation is estimated to have reached 31 100 TWh in 2024. Renewables delivered the largest share of incremental growth, while coal-fired generation remained a key source of electricity security despite its declining share in the global mix. Coal demand for power generation in 2024 is estimated at 5 946 Mt, with reductions in advanced economies offset by gains in emerging markets.

Total electricity generation in 2025 is projected to rise to around 32 200 TWh. Most of this growth is expected to come from renewables, which continue to expand at a record pace, while nuclear and gas also contribute modestly. Coal demand for power generation remains broadly stable at 5 964 Mt, supported by seasonal heating needs and system adequacy requirements, particularly in Asia. China’s use of coal for power is expected to remain near 3 billion tonnes, sustained by strong electricity demand growth and held back by formidable renewables expansion. India’s coal demand for power is estimated at 940 Mt, supported by new coal-fired units totalling 14 GW. Although renewable energy sources are growing rapidly, they alone will not be able to keep pace with the growth in electricity demand.

In contrast, the European Union continues to see structural declines in coal-fired generation in 2025, albeit a slowing reduction due to lower hydro and wind output in the first half of the year. In the United States, policy measures and reliability concerns slow the pace of retirements, and coal-fired power generation is expected to rebound. ASEAN countries, led by Indonesia and Viet Nam, record further increases in coal use for power generation, driven by new capacity and industrial loads, while advanced economies in Asia Pacific, such as Japan, Korea and Australia, continue to reduce coal consumption as it is replaced by renewables and more abundant LNG.

Looking ahead, global electricity generation is expected to reach over 38 000 TWh by 2030, with renewables accounting for the overwhelming share of incremental supply. Nuclear and gas also expand, while coal’s role shifts towards system adequacy and flexibility rather than baseload generation. Global coal demand for power generation is projected to plateau at around 5 710 Mt, with its share of the electricity mix falling from 35% in 2024 to 27% by 2030. Installed coal-fired capacity remains high, but average utilisation declines as retrofitting programmes enable lower minimum load operation and faster ramping to complement variable renewables. These changes underscore that coal remains essential for reliability in several regions, yet its operational role is increasingly decoupled from energy output as clean energy growth accelerates.

Coal is used in industrial applications such as cement, alumina and paper production, coal-to-chemicals, and heating for small-scale industry, even as structural changes reshape demand. Our forecast, made at individual country level, takes into account the sectors in which different countries use coal together with historical records and prospects for growth, using expectations for economic performance, industrial production and specific industrial outputs.

Global non-power consumption of steam coal and lignite rose slightly in 2024 to 1 757 Mt, accounting for about 23% of total steam coal and lignite use. Growth was concentrated in emerging economies, while Europe and advanced Asia Pacific markets continued to see a decline.

In 2025, non-power steam coal and lignite demand is expected to remain broadly stable at 1 766 Mt, representing a 0.6% increase on the previous year. China’s coal-to-chemicals sector drives the growth, offsetting further contraction in cement and other industries. India sustains its growth through the expansion of cement output, coal-based direct reduced iron (DRI) projects and coal gasification, supported by government incentives. ASEAN countries add incremental volumes, led by Indonesia’s nickel and other industries, while other Asian economies show modest gains. Declines persist in Europe and mature Asia Pacific markets as electrification and alternative fuels advance.

By 2030, global non-power steam coal and lignite demand is projected to increase by nearly 50 Mt compared with the 2025 level. However, this comes with an important caveat: the growth is driven by the coal conversion sector in China and new gasification projects in India. Without these developments, thermal coal consumption in the non-power sector would decline. ASEAN countries add further gains through metals processing and emerging coal-to-chemicals initiatives. In contrast, Europe and advanced Asia Pacific economies record a decline due to falling use of coal in steelmaking. Overall, the coal-to-chemicals sector consolidates its role as the main growth driver, while cement and steel lose share structurally.

Metallurgical (met) coal remains a critical input for steelmaking, encompassing coking coal (hard, medium and semi-soft) and coal used for pulverised coal injection (PCI). Coke, produced by heating coking coal in a coke oven without oxygen, is also employed in the manufacture of carbides, ferroalloys and other chemical compounds. Our forecast for met coal demand continues to rely primarily on pig iron production outlooks from organisations such as the World Steel Association, combined with steel production outlooks and expected GDP growth and industrial activity, while accounting for scrap utilisation rates in different regions. Over the medium term, the adoption of hydrogen-based and other innovative steelmaking processes is expected to remain limited because of cost barriers and scrap availability, meaning coke, and hence coking coal, will continue to play a dominant role.

In 2025, global met coal consumption is projected to reach 1 114 Mt, remaining broadly stable compared with 2024. This stability masks contrasting regional dynamics. China, which accounts for the largest share of global demand at around 67%, is expected to consume about 742 Mt, with only a slight increase from the previous year. India’s demand is projected to rise by 5 Mt, supported by expanding steelmaking capacity and robust industrial activity. Meanwhile, advanced economies such as Japan, Korea and the European Union are forecast to see declines, reflecting subdued steel output and a lower share of steel produced through the blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) route.

Looking ahead, global met coal demand is forecast to decline gradually to 1 061 Mt by 2030. This trajectory reflects structural changes in steelmaking and slower growth in industrial activity. The most pronounced reductions are expected in China, where demand could fall by 77 Mt, offsetting gains in India (up 26 Mt) and Indonesia (up 12 Mt). Consumption in the European Union, Japan and Korea is projected to contract by a combined 21 Mt, while the rest of the world sees only marginal growth. Overall, global met coal demand is set to decline by 53 Mt between 2025 and 2030, underscoring the gradual transition in steelmaking technologies and regional economic dynamics.