2015–16 Australian region cyclone season
 |
|
| Season summary map | |
| First system formed | 17 December 2015 |
|---|---|
| Last system dissipated | Season ongoing |
| Strongest storm1 | Stan – 973 hPa (mbar), 110 km/h (70 mph) (10-minute sustained) |
| Tropical lows | 5 |
| Tropical cyclones | 1 |
| Total fatalities | 0 total |
| Total damage | Unknown |
| 1Strongest storm is determined by lowest pressure | |
|
2013–14, 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18 |
|
| Related articles | |
The 2015–16 Australian region cyclone season is a current event in the ongoing cycle of tropical cyclone formation. It officially started on 1 November 2015, and will end on 30 April 2016; however a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2015 and 30 June 2016 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored, by one of the five Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) that operate in this region. Three of the five centres are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane, while the other two are operated by the National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea in Port Moresby and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics in Jakarta, Indonesia. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France and the Fiji Meteorological Service will also monitor the basin during the season.
The season had a very late start, with the first named storm, Stan, developing by the end of January. However unofficially, Raquel formed very early in the month of July, though it was considered to be part of the 2014-15 season.
Contents
Seasonal forecasts[edit]
| Region | Average number |
Chance of more |
Chance of less |
Actual activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whole | 11 | 9% | 91% | 1 |
| Western | 7 | 25% | 75% | 1 |
| North-Western | 5 | 15% | 85% | |
| Northern | 3 | 36% | 64% | |
| Eastern | 4 | 27% | 83% | |
| Source: BOM's Seasonal Outlooks for Tropical Cyclones.[1] |
In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the BoM issued eight seasonal forecasts during October 2015, for the Australian region and the Southern Pacific with each forecast covering the whole tropical cyclone year.[1] It was forecast that the region would less active than during previous years, with a 91% chance of a below average amount of tropical cyclones, because of the strong El Niño episode that had developed over the Pacific Ocean.[1] It was also noted that the first tropical cyclone landfall might be later than usual, with the average first landfall taking place in January during El Niño conditions.[1] For the Western region between 90°E and 125°E, the BoM forecast that the area would also see activity below its average of 7, with a 25% chance of an above average number of tropical cyclones occurring.[1] TCWC Perth also noted that there was a likelihood of two tropical cyclones and a significant likelhood of at least one severe tropical cyclone impacting Western Australia.[2] For the North-Western subregion between 105°E and 130°E, it was predicted that activity would be below average, with a 15% chance of above average tropical cyclone activity.[1] The Northern Territory which was defined as being between as being 125°E and 142.5°E had a 36% chance of an above average season.[1] The Eastern region between 142.5°E and 160°E was predicted to have a near normal tropical cyclone season, though it was noted that there was a possibility of a delayed start to the season.[1]
Seasonal summary[edit]
The season had an early start when the precursor tropical low to Tropical Cyclone Raquel, moved into the Australian region from the South Pacific basin during July 1. The system subsequently became the first tropical cyclone in the South Pacific Ocean during the month of July since reliable records began as it impacted the Solomon Islands.
Storms[edit]
Tropical Low 04U[edit]
| Tropical low (Australian scale) | ||
|---|---|---|
|
||
| Duration | 17 December – 23 December | |
| Peak intensity | Winds unknown 1006 hPa (mbar) |
On 16 December, TCWC Perth mentioned that a tropical low may develop northwest of Christmas Island.[3] The agency declared to be a tropical low by the next day when it was producing convection in its area.[4] On 20 December, TCWC Jakarta issued an advisory as the low was inside their area of responsibility, as it was located about 567 km (352 mi) south-southwest of Tanjung Karang.[5] TCWC Perth forecast the low would intensify to a tropical cyclone and move into the Western Region by 24 hours on 21 December.[6] The low was later designated as 04U on 23 December, however this was the last advisory issued by TCWC Perth and rapidly dissipated overnight.[7][8]
Tropical Low 05U[edit]
| Tropical low (Australian scale) | ||
|---|---|---|
|
||
| Duration | 21 December – 1 January | |
| Peak intensity | 55 km/h (35 mph) (10-min) 994 hPa (mbar) |
Tropical Low 05U was first noted during 21 December, while it was located over land, about 50 km (30 mi) to the north of Borroloola in the Northern Territory.[9] By 23 December, TCWC Darwin issued its first advisory on the system.[10] In the same day, the JTWC issued a low chance of developing into a cyclone.[11] On 26 December, 05U was embedded within a monsoon, giving a potential of intensifying into a tropical cyclone.[12] Couple of days later, 05U drifted southeastwards towards land and failed to reach tropical cyclone intensity.[13] The system was last noted on 1 January while it was located over the Simpson Desert in Queensland, as it was not clear if the low continued towards the east coast or another system had developed.[9]
Tropical Cyclone Stan[edit]
| Category 2 tropical cyclone (Australian scale) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Category 1 tropical cyclone (SSHWS) | ||
|
||
| Duration | 27 January – 31 January | |
| Peak intensity | 110 km/h (70 mph) (10-min) 973 hPa (mbar) |
 |
This section is outdated. (February 2016) |
During 27 January, the BoM reported that Tropical Low 08U had developed about 750 km (465 mi) to the north of Port Hedland, Western Australia.[14] The system was located within a favourable environment for further development and was forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days, as it moved southwards towards the coast of Western Australia. 08U was subsequently declared a Category 1 tropical cyclone during 29 January and was named Stan by the BoM.
Other systems[edit]
During 1 July as the 2015-16 tropical cyclone year opened, the newly named Tropical Cyclone Raquel moved south-westwards into the Australian region.[9][15] During that day the system started to move eastwards in response to the background westerly flow, before it weakened below tropical cyclone intensity as it moved back into the South Pacific basin during July 2.[9][15][16] The system subsequently moved back into the Australian region during 4 July, as it moved through the Solomon Islands.[15][17] The system was subsequently last noted by the BoM to the south-west of Guadalcanal, during 5 July as it rapidly lost its tropical characteristics.[18]
A low-pressure developed east of the 90th meridian east or the border of the basin on 26 December, and had a moderate chance of intensifying into a tropical cyclone.[19] TCWC Perth later classified it as a weak tropical low with the identifier of 06U.[20] On 28 December, as the low slowly moved south, unfavorable environments hinder the chance of being a cyclone.[21] TCWC Perth made its final bulletin of the tropical low as it slowly drifted west on 29 December.[22] During 19 January Tropical Low 07U developed within the monsoon trough of low pressure, about 300 km (185 mi) to the west of West Island in the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.[23] Over the next couple of days the system moved north-eastwards and tried to develop further in a marginally conducive environment for further development.[24] However, the system weakened during 21 January before it was last noted during 24 January as it was not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.[25][26]
Storm names[edit]
TCWC Jakarta[edit]
TCWC Jakarta monitor Tropical Cyclones from the Equator to 11S and from 90E to 145E. Should a Tropical Depression reach Tropical Cyclone strength within TCWC Jakarta's Area of Responsibility then it will be assigned the next name from the following list.[27]
| Cempaka (unused) | Dahlia (unused) | Flamboyan (unused) | Kenanga (unused) | Lili (unused) |
| Mawar (unused) | Seroja (unused) | Teratai (unused) | Anggrek (unused) | Bakung (unused) |
TCWC Port Moresby[edit]
Tropical cyclones that develop north of 11°S between 151°E and 160°E are assigned names by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Tropical cyclone formation in this area is rare, with no cyclones being named in it since 2007.[28] As names are assigned in a random order the whole list is shown below.
| Alu (unused) | Buri (unused) | Dodo (unused) | Emau (unused) | Fere (unused) |
| Hibu (unused) | Ila (unused) | Kama (unused) | Lobu (unused) | Maila (unused) |
Bureau of Meteorology[edit]
Since the start of the 2008–09 season, there has only been one list that the Bureau of Meteorology have assigned names to tropical cyclones from.[27] However the Bureau of Meteorology still operates the various TCWCs in Perth, Darwin & Brisbane. They monitor all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, including when tropical cyclones exist in either TCWC Jakarta's or Port Moresby's area of responsibility.
| Stan | Tatiana (unused) | Uriah (unused) | Yvette (unused) | Alfred (unused) | Blanche (unused) | Caleb (unused) |
| Debbie (unused) | Ernie (unused) | Frances (unused) | Greg (unused) | Hilda (unused) | Isobel (unused) | Joyce (unused) |
Season effects[edit]
| Name | Dates active | Peak classification | Sustained wind speeds |
Pressure | Land areas affected | Damages (AUD) |
Damages (USD) |
Deaths | Refs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04U | 17 – 23 December | Tropical low | Not specified | 1006 hPa (29.71 inHg) | Indonesia | None | None | None | |
| 05U | 21 December – 1 January | Tropical low | 55 km/h (35 mph) | 994 hPa (29.35 inHg) | Northern Territory | None | None | None | |
| 06U | 27 – 29 December | Tropical low | Not specified | Not specified | None | None | None | None | |
| 07U | 19 – 25 January | Tropical low | Not specified | Not specified | None | None | None | None | |
| Stan | 27 – 31 January | Category 2 tropical cyclone | 110 km/h (70 mph) | 973 hPa (28.73 inHg) | Western Australia | None | None | None | |
| Season Aggregates | |||||||||
| 5 systems | 17 December – Currently active | 110 km/h (70 mph) | 973 hPa (28.73 inHg) | Unknown | Unknown | 0 |
See also[edit]
- List of Southern Hemisphere cyclone seasons
- Atlantic hurricane seasons: 2015, 2016
- Pacific hurricane seasons: 2015, 2016
- Pacific typhoon seasons: 2015, 2016
- North Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2015, 2016
- 2015–16 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season
- 2015–16 South Pacific cyclone season
- South Atlantic tropical cyclone
References[edit]
- ^ a b c d e f g h National Climate Centre (13 October 2014). "2015–16 Australian tropical cyclone season outlook: El Niño likely to decrease Australian cyclone numbers". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Retrieved 13 October 2014.
- ^ Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (12 October 2015). "Western Australia Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2015-16". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 12 October 2015. Retrieved 12 October 2015.
- ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region for the period until midnight WST Saturday 19 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 16 December 2015. Retrieved 19 December 2015.
- ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region for the period until midnight WST Sunday 20 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 17 December 2015. Retrieved 19 December 2015.
- ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area on 20th December 2015". Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC). 20 December 2015. Retrieved 20 December 2015. line feed character in
|agency=at position 61 (help) - ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region for the period until midnight WST Thursday 24 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 21 December 2015. Retrieved 23 December 2015.
- ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region for the period until midnight WST Saturday 26 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 26 December 2015. Retrieved 23 December 2015.
- ^ "SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZDEC2015//". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 23 December 2015. line feed character in
|title=at position 53 (help) - ^ a b c d "The Australian Tropical Cyclone Database" (CSV). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A guide on how to read the database is available here.
- ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria for the period until midnight CST Saturday 26 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 23 December 2015. Retrieved 18 January 2016.
- ^ http://www.webcitation.org/6e03yHVxs
- ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 29 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 26 December 2015. Retrieved 18 January 2016.
- ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria for the period until midnight CS Thursday 31 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 28 December 2015. Retrieved 18 January 2016.
- ^ http://www.webcitation.org/6eqpVtLua
- ^ a b c Queensland Regional Office (2015). Tropical Cyclone Raquel (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on September 11, 2015. Retrieved September 11, 2015.
- ^ http://www.webcitation.org/6Zit0I5QY
- ^ Young, Steve (August 31, 2015). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks: July 2015". Australian Severe Weather. Archived from the original on August 2, 2015. Retrieved August 2, 2015.
- ^ Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (July 5, 2015). "Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: Australia: Eastern Region: July 5, 2015 12z". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on July 5, 2015. Retrieved September 11, 2015.
- ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 29 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 26 December 2015. Retrieved 18 January 2016.
- ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 30 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 27 December 2015. Retrieved 18 January 2016.
- ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region for the period until midnight WST Thursday 31 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 28 December 2015. Retrieved 18 January 2016.
- ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region for the period until midnight WST Friday 1 January 2016". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 29 December 2015. Retrieved 18 January 2016.
- ^ http://www.webcitation.org/6ejCxQYdT
- ^ http://www.webcitation.org/6ejCx9Fnr
- ^ http://www.webcitation.org/6ejCwZ1Sc
- ^ http://www.webcitation.org/6er4g8ogF
- ^ a b "Tropical Cyclone Operational plan for the South Pacific & Southeast indian Ocean, 2012 Edition" (PDF). WMO. Retrieved 2013-07-04.
- ^ Gary Padgett (2008). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October". Australian Severe Weather. Retrieved 2013-07-01.
External links[edit]
 |
Wikimedia Commons has media related to 2015-16 Australian region cyclone season. |
- Australian Bureau of Meteorology
- Joint Typhoon Warning Center
- Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta (Indonesian)
- Digital Typhoon
|
|
|
