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Title:
Food for Thought: Lower-Than-Expected Crop Yield Stimulation with Rising CO2 Concentrations
Authors:
Long, Stephen P.; Ainsworth, Elizabeth A.; Leakey, Andrew D. B.; Nösberger, Josef; Ort, Donald R.
Affiliation:
AA(Department of Plant Biology,; Department of Crop Sciences,), AB(Photosynthesis Research Unit, U.S. Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, 1201 West Gregory Drive, Urbana, IL 61801, USA.; Department of Plant Biology,), AC(Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, 1201 West Gregory Drive, Urbana, IL 61801, USA.; Department of Plant Biology,), AD(Institute for Plant Sciences, ETH Zurich, 8902 Zurich, Switzerland), AE(Photosynthesis Research Unit, U.S. Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, 1201 West Gregory Drive, Urbana, IL 61801, USA.; Department of Plant Biology,)
Publication:
Science, Volume 312, Issue 5782, pp. 1918-1921 (2006). (Sci Homepage)
Publication Date:
06/2006
Category:
ECOLOGY
Origin:
SCIENCE
DOI:
10.1126/science.1114722
Bibliographic Code:
2006Sci...312.1918L

Abstract

Model projections suggest that although increased temperature and decreased soil moisture will act to reduce global crop yields by 2050, the direct fertilization effect of rising carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) will offset these losses. The CO2 fertilization factors used in models to project future yields were derived from enclosure studies conducted approximately 20 years ago. Free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) technology has now facilitated large-scale trials of the major grain crops at elevated [CO2] under fully open-air field conditions. In those trials, elevated [CO2] enhanced yield by ~50% less than in enclosure studies. This casts serious doubt on projections that rising [CO2] will fully offset losses due to climate change.
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