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. 2021 Aug 4;12(1):4694.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-25019-2.

Thresholds of temperature change for mass extinctions

Haijun Song  1 , David B Kemp  2 , Li Tian  2 , Daoliang Chu  2 , Huyue Song  2 , Xu Dai  2
Affiliations

Affiliations

  • 1 State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology, School of Earth Sciences, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China. haijunsong@cug.edu.cn.
  • 2 State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology, School of Earth Sciences, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China.

Thresholds of temperature change for mass extinctions

Haijun Song et al. Nat Commun. .
. 2021 Aug 4;12(1):4694.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-25019-2.

Authors

Haijun Song  1 , David B Kemp  2 , Li Tian  2 , Daoliang Chu  2 , Huyue Song  2 , Xu Dai  2

Affiliations

  • 1 State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology, School of Earth Sciences, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China. haijunsong@cug.edu.cn.
  • 2 State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology, School of Earth Sciences, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China.

Abstract

Climate change is a critical factor affecting biodiversity. However, the quantitative relationship between temperature change and extinction is unclear. Here, we analyze magnitudes and rates of temperature change and extinction rates of marine fossils through the past 450 million years (Myr). The results show that both the rate and magnitude of temperature change are significantly positively correlated with the extinction rate of marine animals. Major mass extinctions in the Phanerozoic can be linked to thresholds in climate change (warming or cooling) that equate to magnitudes >5.2 °C and rates >10 °C/Myr. The significant relationship between temperature change and extinction still exists when we exclude the five largest mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic. Our findings predict that a temperature increase of 5.2 °C above the pre-industrial level at present rates of increase would likely result in mass extinction comparable to that of the major Phanerozoic events, even without other, non-climatic anthropogenic impacts.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1

Fig. 1. Temperature change and extinction rate…

Fig. 1. Temperature change and extinction rate over the past 450 million years.

a The…
Fig. 1. Temperature change and extinction rate over the past 450 million years.
a The largest magnitude of temperature change (ΔT, absolute value) in each time bin. b The highest rate (R, absolute value) of temperature change in each time bin, defined at the million-year (Myr) scale. c Generic extinction rates of marine animals calculated using gap-filler methods using data from the Paleobiology Database. The Big Five extinctions occurred in the end-Ordovician (OS), Frasnian-Famennian transition (FF), Permian-Triassic transition (PT), Triassic-Jurassic transition (TJ), and Cretaceous-Paleogene transition (KPg). Vertical bars show mean ± 1 x standard deviation (see Methods). O Ordovician, S Silurian, D Devonian, C Carboniferous, P Permian, T Triassic, J Jurassic, K Cretaceous, Pg Paleogene, N Neogene. Dark cyan, blue, and red dots represent ΔT, R, and extinction rate, respectively. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
Fig. 2

Fig. 2. The relationship between climate change…

Fig. 2. The relationship between climate change and GF extinction rate.

a Cross plot of…
Fig. 2. The relationship between climate change and GF extinction rate.
a Cross plot of ΔT and extinction rate (n = 45, ρ = 0.63, P < 0.001). After excluding the Big Five extinctions, the correlation persists (n = 40, ρ = 0.54, P < 0.001). b Cross plot of ΔT and extinction rate, with blue dots representing cooling events (n = 25, ρ = −0.53, P = 0.006), and green dots representing warming events (n = 20, ρ = 0.76, P < 0.001). c Cross plot of R and extinction rate (n = 45, ρ = 0.57, P < 0.001). After excluding the Big Five extinctions, the correlation persists (n = 40, ρ = 0.42, P = 0.007). d Cross plot of R and extinction rate, with blue dots representing cooling events (n = 25, ρ = −0.31, P = 0.134), and green dots representing warming events (n = 20, ρ = 0.78, P < 0.001). n = the sample size used to derive statistics. Horizontal and vertical bars show mean ±1 x standard deviation (see Methods). Red, blue, and dark cyan dots represent all, cooling events and warming events, respectively. The statistical test was two-sided and no adjustments were made for multiple comparisons. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
Fig. 3

Fig. 3. Cross plot of magnitude versus…

Fig. 3. Cross plot of magnitude versus rate of temperature change.

Higher magnitude climate change…

Fig. 3. Cross plot of magnitude versus rate of temperature change.
Higher magnitude climate change tended to occur at faster rates. The Big Five extinction events fall in the area of ΔT  > 5.2 °C, R  > 10 °C/Myr, and timespan (Δt) < 0.4 Myr, thus defining the broad climate thresholds that lead to mass extinction of marine animals. As made clear in the main text, the plotted magnitudes and rates pertain to those that occur within each of the 45 defined time intervals. Horizontal and vertical bars show mean ± 1 x standard deviation (see Methods). The colour of dots represents the timespan of each climate event. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
Fig. 4

Fig. 4. Timing of temperature change (Δ …

Fig. 4. Timing of temperature change (Δ T ) relative to extinction horizon for the…

Fig. 4. Timing of temperature change (ΔT) relative to extinction horizon for the major (red) and minor (blue) extinctions during the past 450 million years.
The dashed line is the position of the extinction horizon in relation to the time span of the largest magnitude climate changes (colored bars) within the time interval containing the extinction. The exception to this is the end-Devonian bar (see Supplementary Fig. 3). This bar represents instead the timespan of glaciation in the latest Devonian. The plot emphasizes how the timing of extinction is contemporaneous with large magnitude climate change (within the resolution of the available data). For the ages of mass extinctions and ΔT see Supplementary Table 3. Red and blue bars represent Big Five and minor mass extinctions, respectively. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
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