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. 2016 Jun:3:51-77.
doi: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-041715-033428. Epub 2016 Mar 9.

Bayes and the Law

Affiliations

Affiliation

  • 1 School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science, Queen Mary University London, London E1 4NS, United Kingdom.

Bayes and the Law

Norman Fenton et al. Annu Rev Stat Appl. 2016 Jun.
. 2016 Jun:3:51-77.
doi: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-041715-033428. Epub 2016 Mar 9.

Affiliation

  • 1 School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science, Queen Mary University London, London E1 4NS, United Kingdom.

Abstract

Although the last forty years has seen considerable growth in the use of statistics in legal proceedings, it is primarily classical statistical methods rather than Bayesian methods that have been used. Yet the Bayesian approach avoids many of the problems of classical statistics and is also well suited to a broader range of problems. This paper reviews the potential and actual use of Bayes in the law and explains the main reasons for its lack of impact on legal practice. These include misconceptions by the legal community about Bayes' theorem, over-reliance on the use of the likelihood ratio and the lack of adoption of modern computational methods. We argue that Bayesian Networks (BNs), which automatically produce the necessary Bayesian calculations, provide an opportunity to address most concerns about using Bayes in the law.

Keywords: Bayes; Bayesian networks; legal arguments; statistics in court.

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Figures

Figure 1

Figure 1. Causal view of evidence, with…

Figure 1. Causal view of evidence, with prior probabilities shown in tables. This is a…

Figure 1. Causal view of evidence, with prior probabilities shown in tables. This is a very simple example of a Bayesian Network (BN)
Figure 2

Figure 2. Bayesian network for DNA match…

Figure 2. Bayesian network for DNA match evidence. Each node has states true or false

Figure 2. Bayesian network for DNA match evidence. Each node has states true or false
Figure 3

Figure 3. BN Model for the conjunction…

Figure 3. BN Model for the conjunction paradox

Figure 3. BN Model for the conjunction paradox
Figure 4

Figure 4. Running the model before and…

Figure 4. Running the model before and after observing the witness evidence

Figure 4. Running the model before and after observing the witness evidence
Figure 5

Figure 5. Modelling complex evidence in a…

Figure 5. Modelling complex evidence in a BN

Figure 5. Modelling complex evidence in a BN
Figure 6

Figure 6. Posterior odds in correct model

Figure 6. Posterior odds in correct model

Figure 6. Posterior odds in correct model

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