The influence of social norms on the dynamics of vaccinating behaviour for paediatric infectious diseases
- PMID: 24523276
- PMCID: PMC4078885
- DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.3172
The influence of social norms on the dynamics of vaccinating behaviour for paediatric infectious diseases
- PMID: 24523276
- PMCID: PMC4078885
- DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.3172
Erratum in
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Correction to 'The influence of social norms on the dynamics of vaccinating behaviour for paediatric infectious diseases'.Proc Biol Sci. 2016 Oct 12;283(1840):20161859. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2016.1859. Proc Biol Sci. 2016. PMID: 27733549 Free PMC article. No abstract available.
Abstract
Mathematical models that couple disease dynamics and vaccinating behaviour often assume that the incentive to vaccinate disappears if disease prevalence is zero. Hence, they predict that vaccine refusal should be the rule, and elimination should be difficult or impossible. In reality, countries with non-mandatory vaccination policies have usually been able to maintain elimination or very low incidence of paediatric infectious diseases for long periods of time. Here, we show that including injunctive social norms can reconcile such behaviour-incidence models to observations. Adding social norms to a coupled behaviour-incidence model enables the model to better explain pertussis vaccine uptake and disease dynamics in the UK from 1967 to 2010, in both the vaccine-scare years and the years of high vaccine coverage. The model also illustrates how a vaccine scare can perpetuate suboptimal vaccine coverage long after perceived risk has returned to baseline, pre-vaccine-scare levels. However, at other model parameter values, social norms can perpetuate depressed vaccine coverage during a vaccine scare well beyond the time when the population's baseline vaccine risk perception returns to pre-scare levels. Social norms can strongly suppress vaccine uptake despite frequent outbreaks, as observed in some small communities. Significant portions of the parameter space also exhibit bistability, meaning long-term outcomes depend on the initial conditions. Depending on the context, social norms can either support or hinder immunization goals.
Keywords: behaviour-incidence model; decision-making; paediatric immunization; peer pressure; social norms.
Figures
Figure 1.
Empirical and modelled ( a …
Figure 1.
Empirical and modelled ( a , c , e ) pertussis vaccine coverage…
Figure 2.
The δ − m parameter…
Figure 2.
The δ − m parameter plane for the stability of model equilibria [Image:…
Figure 3.
Simulations of ( a , …
Figure 3.
Simulations of ( a , c ) vaccine coverage and ( b , …
Figure 4.
( a ) Stability regions…
Figure 4.
( a ) Stability regions of [Image: see text] (bottom-left region) and [Image:…
Figure 5.
( a ) Stability regions…
Figure 5.
( a ) Stability regions of [Image: see text] (bottom-right region) and [Image:…
Figure 6.
Simulation of pertussis vaccine coverage…
Figure 6.
Simulation of pertussis vaccine coverage in the UK in the period 1967–2010, at…
References
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- Bloom DE, Canning D, Weston M. 2005. The value of vaccination. World Econ. 6, 15–39.
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