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The estimation of the nominal power of a photovoltaic generator is crucial for evaluating the operational state of PV plants. International standards such as IEC 61829 and ASTM E2848-13 propose methods to estimate the nominal power under clear sky conditions. However, these standards impose strict requirements:

  1. They require stable meteorological conditions, including high irradiance levels (>800 W/m²) and low wind speeds.
  2. They exclude data from partially cloudy days, limiting their applicability in regions with frequent cloud cover.
  3. They require specialized equipment such as I-V curve tracers, which are impractical for large PV plants.

This becomes a problem when Estimating effective nominal Power:

  • 
The nominal power of a PV system is expected to match the manufacturer’s nominal power, under the IEC and ASTM standards, it is impossible to assess this characterization on partially cloudy days in tropical areas.
  • Contractual Agreements in PV Plant Transactions. For instance, the purchase and sale of solar power plants, investors require an accurate estimation of the actual nominal power to ensure compliance with expected performance guarantees.
  • If only clear sky days can be used for evaluation, many locations (e.g., tropical regions) would lack reliable data. The IEC and ASTM methodologies may underestimate power losses in degraded PV systems.

We propose a new methodology that allows estimating the effective nominal power even under non-ideal conditions. This methodology, validated in previous research studies, is based on non-parametric statistical filtering and presents several advantages:

Mathematical Approach

  • Instead of discarding data from partially cloudy days, we use a Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) method to extract the most probable nominal power value from daily measurements.
  • The methodology filters out anomalies caused by shading, inverter saturation, and ambient changes.

Robust Estimation

  • The method was successfully tested on a 109.44 kW PV plant in Granada, Spain.
  • It achieved a power estimation uncertainty of less than 1%, comparable to the IEC and ASTM standards under ideal conditions.
  • Application in Diverse Climates
  • The methodology was further tested in challenging environments, such as a desert region (Lima, Peru) and a tropical region (Chachapoyas, Peru), paper draft.
  • Unlike standard approaches, it remained reliable under cloudy conditions.

Application in Contractual and Degradation Analysis

  • The method provides a more accurate assessment of a PV plant’s current performance.
  • It can be used to verify performance guarantees in solar power transactions.
  • It offers a more flexible alternative to traditional standards, making it applicable to more locations worldwide.

We have analyzed existing methodologies, including:

IEC 61829 (I-V Curve Translation to STC)

  • Requires specialized equipment to measure the I-V curve of each string.
  • Difficult to implement in large-scale PV plants.

ASTM E2848-13

  • Requires at least 3 clear sky days with stable irradiance (around 1000 W/m²).
  • Not applicable in partially cloudy environments.

Martínez-Moreno et al. (2012) Method

  • Uses a linear regression approach for nominal power estimation.
  • Excludes data from non-ideal conditions, limiting its applicability.

Compared to these alternatives, this procedure:

  • Extends applicability to partially cloudy days.
  • Alternative to the need for I-V curve tracers.

  • Uses robust statistical techniques to ensure accuracy.

The procedure requires monitoring data from the photovoltaic plant under real operating conditions. The necessary parameters are:

1. Irradiance at the module plane (W/m²).

  • Measured using a pyranometer or a calibrated photovoltaic module.
  • A sampling frequency of at least every 30 seconds or 1 minute is required.

2. Photovoltaic module temperature (°C)

  • Measured using a thermocouple, PT100 sensor, or through indirect methods (e.g., open-circuit voltage).

3. DC output power (W)

  • Measured at the maximum power point (MPP) of the inverter.

4. Reference data from the module datasheet

  • Manufacturer's nominal power under Standard Test Conditions (STC).
  • Power temperature coefficient (%/°C).
  • Reference irradiance at STC (1000 W/m²).

The output provides Actual Effective Nominal Power (W or kW)

This methodology is currently validating its applicability in various climates and real-world conditions. Would the pvlib-python community be interested in integrating this method as an enhancement to the existing nominal power estimation tools?

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Replies: 5 comments · 6 replies

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Is this an announcement, discussion or feature request? It might be better to post this in the pvlib Google group or convert to GH discussion?

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@JRAnguloPUCP thanks for this well-written post. I'm going to move this to a Discussion, rather than an Issue, since we're not at the point of adding specific features.

My personal view is that software supporting capacity testing isn't a good fit for pvlib-python, but may be a good fit for pvlib/pvanalytics. pvanalytics doesn't have anything like that currently, but it's a young project and could embrace that addition to scope.

The only comparable software I know of is the pvcaptest library, which is specific to the ASTM 2848 method. There is currently great interest in capacity test methods in the PV industry in the US. It makes sense to share software to allow comparison among alternative methods.

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2 replies
@JRAnguloPUCP
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@cwhanse thanks very much for your thoughtful feedback and taking the time to review my post. I appreciate your perspective on capacity testing (effective nominal power) and the suggestion to consider integrating this method into pvanalytics.

Would you recommend that I open a new Issue in the pvanalytics repository to propose this addition? Or are there any preliminary steps or guidelines you suggest I follow before submitting a proposal?

Thanks again for your time and willingness to engage with this idea

@cwhanse
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@JRAnguloPUCP an issue referencing this discussion would be a good starting point. I wouldn't expect a lot of discussion on pvanalytics, it doesn't get the traffic and attention that pvlib-python does.

To be candid implementing the method you describe is better to be done in multiple, smaller pull requests as we identify each function in the process and an appropriate location, which may be in pvlib-python as @adriesse comments.

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Would the pvlib-python community be interested in integrating this method as an enhancement to the existing nominal power estimation tools?

Thanks for reaching out to us!

It sounds like your method is composed of many parts. Some of these might be suitable for pvlib-python, and some might fit better in pvanalytics, which is also part of the pvlib family.

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@JRAnguloPUCP Have you compared your approach to IEC TS 61724-2:2016? (I did not see this standard mentioned in the limited online version of your paper.)

Also, to clarify the present discussion, would you be able to precisely define the effective nominal power here?

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4 replies
@cwhanse
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@markcampanelli IEC TS61724-2 leaves the choice of a power prediction model to the interested parties. I think that complicates comparison with ASTM 2848 and similar capacity methods, which specify a prediction equation.

@mikofski
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I’m not sure I agree. The ASTM-E2848-13 “specific regression equation” is first fit to an arbitrary prediction model like PVsyst or SolarFarmer. Also, the equation used in practice does not always match the standard, especially since it doesn’t clarify what is E_poa or how to deal with backside irradiance or bifaciality

@cwhanse
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The ASTM-E2848-13 “specific regression equation” is first fit to an arbitrary prediction model like PVsyst or SolarFarmer.

I'm confused by this statement. Are you referring to some kind of procedure for relating a measured capacity to a contract proforma capacity? It is my understanding that the ASTM-E2848 equation (which is the PVUSA model) is not fit to a proforma model, but rather to the measurements at the site (after filtering). Then that fitted equation is evaluated at the reference condition to determine its measured capacity.

You make good points about the model (and its inputs) being less than completely specified for all situations.

@JRAnguloPUCP
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Thank you very much for your observation and for the opportunity to clarify this point.
IEC TS 61724-2:2016 includes an equation (Annex B, Eq. B.2) that describes the power output of a photovoltaic generator based on irradiance and module temperature.
Captura de pantalla 2025-02-26 a la(s) 6 17 40 p  m

This is the similar discussed in the paper Martinez et al 2012. However, B.2 equation is intended to obtain the predicted power and compare it with the measured. In both Martinez et al 2012 and in our proposal, the objective is to determine the effective nominal power under outdoor conditions.
Regarding the definition of “effective nominal power,” this parameter represents the power under conditions approximating STC (1000 W/m², 25 °C, and AM1.5), but it considers cable losses, module mismatch, and other inefficiencies inherent to field operation—especially since the measurement is taken prior to the PV inverter. This distinguishes it from the manufacturer’s nominal power, which is based on the sum up of each module’s power at STC and does not always accurately reflect real operating conditions.
By calculating the effective nominal power, a more realistic representation of the system’s overall performance is obtained, which is invaluable for evaluating profitability, establishing warranties, and making reliable comparisons between the installed and the expected power.
While Martinez et al 2012 clearly defines how to calculate this parameter in the field, its method is limited by environmental conditions (only clear sky condition), abrupt changes in irradiance, and/or module temperature fluctuations. In our proposal, we apply non-parametric statistical methods to process the data under non-ideal condition, thereby achieving the same value as would be obtained under ideal clear-sky conditions. This method was initially validated on a 104 kW plant in Granada, Spain, and subsequently tested more rigorously on systems installed in desert areas, such as in Lima, as well as in regions with high cloud cover, like the tropical Amazon near Chachapoyas Peru, where it would be impossible to have ideal conditions MatER-Group
For example, after four years of operation of a photovoltaic generator, one can compute the effective nominal power with outdoor data, which can then be used to model the predicted power with new values of irradiance and module temperature.

Finally, and to comment on the ASTM E2848-13 standard, it defines the Power Test Condition capacity rating, the test condition could be STC and thus obtain the effective power. To do this, the coefficients of:

Captura de pantalla 2025-02-26 a la(s) 6 33 25 p  m

must first be calculated through a linear regression example is this, according to the ASTM standard, can only be done under ideal conditions.

image
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the ASTM-E2848 equation (which is the PVUSA model) is not fit to a proforma model, but rather to the measurements at the site (after filtering). Then that fitted equation is evaluated at the reference condition to determine its measured capacity.

@cwhanse yes, I agree the measured capacity is evaluated this way, but the test is the ratio of measured capacity to modeled both evaluated at the same reporting conditions. The procedure you describe is repeated with the model of record, with some changes to remove anything that might interfere with the relation of DC power to inputs. A test ratio of 100% means the measured capacity is the same as expected at the reporting conditions.

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Converted from issue

This discussion was converted from issue #2386 on February 11, 2025 16:55.

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