15th Five-Year Plan
| China | ||
|---|---|---|
| 15th Five-Year Plan | ||
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| Full name | 15th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China | |
| Start date | 2025 | |
| End date | 2030 | |
| Economic targets | ||
| GDP at start | CN¥140.188 trillion | |
 The original text of the plan, hosted on Wikisource:15th Five-Year Plan | ||
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| 15th Five-Year Plan | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simplified Chinese | 十五五规划 | |||
| Traditional Chinese | 十五五規劃 | |||
| ||||
| 15th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development and Long-range Objectives Through the Year 2030 of the People's Republic of China | ||||
| Simplified Chinese | 中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要 | |||
| Traditional Chinese | 中華人民共和國國民經濟和社會發展第十五個五年規劃綱要 | |||
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The 15th Five-Year Plan, officially the 15th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China, is a set of goals for national economic development. The plan, abbreviated 15-5, covers the years from 2026 to 2030.
Drafting
[edit]A preliminary study for the plan by the National Development and Reform Commission took place on 17 and 18 December 2023.[1][2] According to Arthur Kroeber, speeches before drafting the new plan emphasized new quality productive forces, disruptive innovation, and a new national system for coordination.[3]
The fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, held on 20 to 23 October 2025, focused on assessing the previous 14th Five-Year Plan and considered the proposed 15th five-year plan.[4][5][6] On 24 October 2025, Premier Li Qiang chaired a special meeting on the preparation of the outline of the 15th Five-Year plan, with Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang being present.[7] On 3 November 2025, CCP General Office Director Cai Qi published an opinion piece in the People's Daily, where he stressed the "extreme importance of exercising full and rigorous party self-governance to achieve the economic and social development goals of the 15th five-year plan period".[8]
On 27 February 2026, the CCP Politburo held a meeting to discuss the draft outline of the plan, which the State Council intended to submit to the fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress for review.[9] The National People's Congress subsequently reviewed the draft outline.[10][11] It was approved by the NPC on 12 March 2026.[12]
Details
[edit]The plan seeks to achieve basic socialist modernization.[12] It has six main principles "upholding the party's overall leadership; putting people first; ensuring high quality development; upholding comprehensive and in-depth reform; implementing state market balance to form an economic order that is 'flexible' and 'well managed'; and balancing security and development."[10] This means pursuing high-quality development over pure growth. This development can be measured through labor a and capital productivity.[13] For the period, 4.5-5% gross domestic product growth is expected.[12] Compared to the 14th Five-Year Plan, the 15-5 puts more emphasis on supporting businesses and less on supporting an equal distribution of wealth.[10][13]
15-5 highlights a need to secure the critical supply chains[14] for products with both civil and military applications.[15] The central committee has stated that China must "maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing" and support "optimizing and upgrading traditional industries". General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party Xi Jinping stated, "real economy cannot be lost". These statements indicate that China's future economic planning will not disregard the manufacturing sector.[10]
The 70 percent semiconductor self-sufficiency target established under Made in China 2025, a target China missed by roughly 50 points, has been quietly deleted from the 15th Five-Year Plan and replaced with a deployment metric: digital economy value-added at 12.5 percent of GDP by 2030. Beijing is no longer measuring success by how many chips it produces. It is measuring success by how deeply computing infrastructure penetrates the economy.[16]
Green technologies such as solar power and electric vehicles, and the accompanying rare-earth supply chains have been successful in China. In 15–5, Beijing aims to support similar policies for advanced semiconductors, biotechnology, and quantum technology.[10]
Other efforts focus on improving China's financial strength. Reforms intended to achieve this goal include "advancing the Chinese currency's internationalization, pursuing greater openness of the capital account, and building a homegrown, risk-controllable cross-border renminbi payment system."[17] The plan encourages adoption of more flexible regulations.[14]
Another aspect of the 15-5 is an emphasis on improving social support systems for vulnerable groups, including people with disabilities. One example of this initiative is the opening of a "silent café" that employs deaf workers inside a government office in Huai'an.[18]
Key indicators
[edit]The following targets were set under the plan:[13]
| Category | Index | Attributive | 2025 Baseline | 2030 Goal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic development | GDP growth | Indicative | — | Maintain in a reasonable range |
| Labor productivity growth | Indicative | — | Higher than GDP growth | |
| Urbanization rate of permanent residents (%) | Indicative | 67.9 | 71 | |
| Innovation | Average annual R&D expenditure growth (%) | Indicative | — | 7.1 |
| High-value innovation patents per 10,000 people | Indicative | 15.3 | >22 | |
| Share of value added of core digital economy industries in GDP (%) | Indicative | 10.2 | 12.5 | |
| People's livelihood and welfare |
Surveyed urban unemployment rate (%) | Indicative | 5.2 | <5.5 |
| Growth of per capita disposable income (%) | Indicative | — | In line with GDP growth | |
| Average years of schooling of working-age population | Binding | 11.3 | 11.7 | |
| Licensed physicians per 1,000 people | Indicative | 3.2 | 3.7 | |
| Registered nurses per 1,000 people | Indicative | 3.9 | 5.1 | |
| Share of nursing-type beds in elderly care institutions (%) | Indicative | 62 | 73 | |
| Increase in childcare enrolment rate for children under 3 | Indicative | — | +6% | |
| Life expectancy | Indicative | 78.6 | 80 | |
| Green ecology | Reduction in CO2 emissions per unit of GDP | Binding | — | -17% |
| Share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption (%) | Binding | 20.8 | 25 | |
| PM2.5 concentration in prefecture-level and above cities (pg/m3) | Binding | 29.8 | <27 | |
| Share of surface water reaching Grade III or above (%) | Binding | 83 | 85 | |
| Forest coverage rate (%) | Binding | 24.1 | 25.8 | |
| Security | Comprehensive grain production capacity (million jin) | Binding | 1.39 | >1.45 |
| Total energy production capacity (billion tons of standard coal) | Binding | 4.8 | 5.8 |
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ↑ "China's top economic planner begins preliminary study of 15th Five-Year Plan". State Council of the People's Republic of China. Retrieved 2025-01-07.
- ↑ Yao, Kevin; Zhang, Ellen (26 December 2024). "China revises up 2023 GDP, sees little impact on 2024 growth". Reuters. Retrieved 7 January 2025.
- ↑ Kroeber, Arthur. "Unleashing "new quality productive forces": China's strategy for technology-led growth". Brookings. Retrieved 2025-12-07.
- ↑ Blanchette, Jude; Kennedy, Scott (2020-10-30). "China's Fifth Plenum: Reading the Initial Tea Leaves". Center for Strategic and International Studies.
- ↑ "Explainer: What is China's 'third plenum'?". Reuters. 15 July 2024. Retrieved 7 January 2025.
- ↑ Wang, Orange (9 October 2025). "Transformation of China's supersized market will suit Italian investors: Wang Yi". South China Morning Post.
- ↑ "李强主持召开国务院"十五五"规划《纲要草案》编制工作领导小组会议强调 全面贯彻党的二十届四中全会部署 高质量编制"十五五"规划纲要 丁薛祥出席" [Li Qiang presided over a meeting of the State Council's Leading Group for the Preparation of the Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need to fully implement the arrangements of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CCP Central Committee and prepare the Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan with high quality. Ding Xuexiang was present.]. State Council of the People's Republic of China (in Chinese). 26 November 2019. Retrieved 26 September 2023.
- ↑ Zhang, Phoebe (3 November 2025). "Communist Party discipline key to meeting China's 5-year plan goals: Cai Qi". South China Morning Post. Retrieved 4 November 2025.
- ↑ "中共中央政治局召开会议 讨论"十五五"规划纲要草案和政府工作报告 中共中央总书记习近平主持会议" [The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee convened a meeting to discuss the draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the government work report. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, presided over the meeting.]. Ministry of Ecology and Environment. 27 February 2026. Retrieved 2026-03-06.
- 1 2 3 4 5 Jargad, Shruti (2025-11-24). "China's five-year plan confronts economic reform amid geopolitical competition". The Strategist. Retrieved 2025-12-07.
- ↑ "两会日程预告丨3月6日：审议和讨论政府工作报告 审查和讨论"十五五"规划纲要草案" [Two Sessions Schedule Preview | March 6: Deliberation and discussion of the Government Work Report and review and discussion of the draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan]. Xinhua News Agency. 5 March 2026. Retrieved 2026-03-06.
- 1 2 3 "As China's Two Sessions close, Beijing's strategy for a more turbulent world becomes clearer". CNA.
- 1 2 3 "Deciphering the 15th Five Year Plan Merics". Mercator Institute for China Studies. 19 March 2026.
- 1 2 "China's 2026 Two Sessions: A New Five-Year Cycle and Emerging Signals on Trade, Technology and Investment". www.wilmerhale.com. 26 March 2026.
- ↑ Wu, Xinyi (12 January 2026). "China prioritises export controls, supply chains to shield economy in 2026". South China Morning Post.
- ↑ Wilcox, Russ (March 10, 2026). "China's 5-Year Plan Has Moved Beyond the Chip War. Washington Hasn't Noticed". thediplomat.com.
- ↑ 李松. "High-quality capital account opening in focus". China Daily. Retrieved 2026-02-24.
- ↑ 李, 松 (30 January 2026). "'Silent Cafes' A Strong Voice For Disabled Workers". China Daily. Retrieved 2026-02-24.