Since 2020, Secretaries of State have been thrust into the national spotlight due to their role in key states of running and often certifying elections. There are several stop-the-steal candidates running in states that could come down to the wire, both this year and in 2022. The election of these candidates could be catastrophic to the electoral process. Also, at the bottom of this article, I will be updating three Attorney General ratings. The original ratings can be found here.
Competitive
Arizona
Arizona’s incumbent Secretary of State Katie Hobbs is making a run for governor leaving the office open for the taking. Dems have nominated former Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes who is facing off against State Rep Mark Finchem. As you will see with many Republican nominees, Finchem does not accept the results of the 2020 election. As recently as early October, Finchem was consistently polling ahead of Fontes. However, a recent OHPI poll (as well as a NYT/Siena poll) found Fontes ahead as independents have shifted towards him in recent months. Arizona voters have split their tickets for Democrats for the secretary of state office before, and I think it’s more likely than not they will again this year.
Rating: Leans Democratic
Colorado
Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold is running against Pamela Anderson who ran elections in Jefferson County for over 20 years. Anderson has been running a campaign run on election transparency and has earned the endorsements of several clerks from Denver and Boulder as well as the endorsement of the Denver Post, who endorsed mostly Democrats for other offices. Anderson is running the best Republican campaign in Colorado, but she will still likely fall short by 4-5 points. Griswold has been polling well outside the margin of error, and might run behind other statewide dems, but she should still win.
Rating: Leans Democratic
Georgia
Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s incumbent Secretary of State, will face off against nonprofit executive and state representative Bee Nguyen. Raffensberger has generated goodwill with suburban independents for standing up to Trump and has been polling ahead, although there are a large amount of undecided voters. A libertarian candidate is running and could force this into a runoff, something that throws a wrench into ratings. However, if a candidate clears 50% in the first round it would be Raffensperger.
Rating: Leans Republican
Michigan
In Michigan, incumbent Jocelyn Benson is facing off against Republican Kristina Karamo. Benson was first elected in the 2018 blue wave by 8.9%, only running behind Gretchen Whitmer by 0.6% statewide. Karamo, a community college instructor, gained attention in the Michigan Republican party in 2020 after claiming she witnessed election fraud. Karamo has been scandal-plagued throughout the campaign and has nearly no money nor TV ads. Benson has been polling well ahead and is even pulling ahead of Whitmer in some polls. It would be no surprise if she was the Michigan Row Democrat with the best performance this year.
Rating: Likely Democratic
Indiana
Indiana has seen quite an interesting Secretary of State that likely won’t be competitive, but is still worth mentioning. Republican candidate Diego Morales, who has made much of his campaign about election integrity, might have committed voter fraud himself. According to WYMFI, Morales voted at a secondary address, in a different county from his primary Marion County address. Polls have been close as well, but the same polls have statewide races across Indiana competitive as well which is unlikely. We don’t do “Very Likely” ratings at Elections Daily, but this race is about as safe as a “Likely” race can get. The Democratic nominee, Destiny Wells simply doesn’t have the resources to pull off an upset.
Rating: Likely Republican
Minnesota
The Minnesota Secretary of State Election has been relatively unremarkable thus far. Incumbent Steve Simon has been polling relatively well, only running behind Tim Walz by about two points. He should be able to defeat Republican Kim Crockett on Tuesday by about 5%.
Rating: Leans Democratic
Nevada
Nevada’s Secretary of State, Barbara Cegavske, was the only Republican to win statewide in Nevada in 2018. However, since she was first elected in the Sandoval wave of 2014, she is term limited. The Republican nominee this year is Jim Marchant, a former assemblyman and 2020 candidate for NV-04. Marchant calls himself a “victim of 2020 election fraud” and has made it central to his campaign this year. Aguilar is a former Reid staffer and has held multiple positions with the NHSE and Nevada Athletic Commission. Aguilar has outraised and outspent Marchant nearly 10:1 in the past quarter and has subsequently been dominating the airwaves hitting Marchant over possible restrictions to voting rights, election denial, and pointing out possible dangers of him holding the office. So far in Nevada Early Voting, there hasn’t been indication of a red wave. Aguilar should be able to flip this office for Dems, but it will be close.
Rating: Leans Democratic
New Mexico
New Mexico Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver is running for reelection against Republican Audrey Trujillo. Oliver won in 2018 by over 20% because her opponent withdrew from the race and was replaced by Gavin Clarkson, a former professor. While Oliver won’t match her 2018 margin, she is substantially favored this year polling far ahead of her gubernatorial Democratic counterpart, Michelle Lujan Grisham.
Rating: Likely Democratic
Wisconsin
Doug LaFollette has been serving as Wisconsin Secretary of State for nearly 40 years now, even as Republicans stripped his power of overseeing elections, and is facing his toughest re-election campaign yet facing a challenge from Republican state representative Amy Loudenbeck. Like the Attorney General race, this will likely go with the Governor’s race as LaFollete’s crossover appeal seems to have diminished, having only won by 5 in 2018 and he is polling behind Tony Evers. This is an extremely tough environment for Wisconsin Democrats and in a state where their rural floor could fall out from underneath them in any election, its hard not to pick Loudenbeck.
Rating: Leans Republican
Washington
Washington is perhaps one of the stranger Secretary of State races this year. Republican Kim Wyman won in 2020 by 7%, but subsequently left the job in 2021 to be the election security lead at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. In the jungle primary to fill her term, Republicans were locked out of the top two, so none advanced to the general election. However, to Democrat’s chagrin, it is not two democrats who advanced, rather it is a Democrat and an Independent. Public polling has been extremely scarce in this race, but one public poll showed appointed incumbent Democrat Steve Hobbs only leading his opponent Julie Anderson by 2. Anderson, who is the Pierce County Administrator, has been outspent by 2:1, but is hoping the idea of a nonpartisan candidate running elections will convince enough Washington voters to vote for her. Democrats haven’t won a Washington Secretary of State election since 1960, but this looks like it could be their best chance yet. It wouldn’t be a shock if Anderson won, but considering how Secretaries of State offices around the country are becoming politically polarized as well as an incumbency boost for Hobbs, Democrats are narrowly favored to win this race.
Rating: Leans Democratic
Attorney General Tossup Movements
Minnesota
Republicans seem poised to pick up their first statewide office since 2006 as Keith Ellison continues to struggle against Jim Schultz. A recent SurveyUSA poll (which nailed the margin in 2018), showed Ellison 7 points behind Schultz at 42. The same poll had Governor Tim Walz leading his opponent, Scott Jensen by 8 points. Ellison has struggled in Likely Voter polls all election season and it doesn’t seem like Walz will be able to bring Ellison across the finish line.
Rating: Leans Republican
Nevada
As I said earlier, early voting has indicated Nevada Dems might be able to escape a wipeout this year. Aaron Ford, the Democrat who had the narrowest margin of victory in 2018, is currently the best polling Democrat in Nevada. He was up by 5% in an Emerson College Poll and 8% in an OHPI/NVIndy poll that had dems at the top of the ticket down 4-5% and up 2-4% respectively. It seems Ford’s financial advantage has allowed him to define his opponent, Sigal Chattah and he seems poised for a win this week.
Rating: Leans Democratic
Wisconsin
Rating: Leans Republican
